Out of principle, you have to take Nick Saban in this spot. And the public is all over undefeated Georgia. Simply put, Alabama isn't used to being in this situation. For the trivia nerds: Tim Tebow and Florida beat Alabama 31-20 in 2008 to cover the spread. In those five games, the Crimson Tide has won four of them. Here is the wildest stat of championship weekend: Since 2008, Alabama has only been an underdog five times under Nick Saban. PICK: Under 27 first-half points combined at FOX Bet I have my eye on the first half under, as I see the Bearcats coming out a little skittish with so much on the line against the tough Cougars defense. Look for that unit to shut down the Cougars passing game and for Cincinnati to pull away in the second half to finish an undefeated regular season. The Bearcats defense is led by potential first-round pick Ahmad Gardner in the secondary. The Bearcats control their destiny now, and a victory would make Cincinnati the first non-Power 5 school to make the College Football Playoff. They were utterly dominant against a good SMU team and covered easily against ECU last week. You have to wonder if the early College Football Playoff rankings rattled the Bearcats in November, and as a result, failed to cover against Navy, Tulane, Tulsa and USF in a nervy four-game stretch. Still, it's tough not to like the favorite here to win.Ĭincinnati hasn't lost a home game at Nippert Stadium since November 2017. He's taken 18 sacks this year, and Georgia got him eight times in the bowl loss last year. One tiny knock on Cincy QB Desmond Ridder (42-5, AAC career leader in total offense) is he holds the ball too long. Outside of a hiccup against Memphis, he's been terrific since the season-opening drubbing against Texas Tech when he threw four interceptions.Īfter two rocky years in Houston, Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are rolling, and they can give the Bearcats fits behind "Sack Avenue" - a fearsome defensive line that is fourth in the country in sacks (41). Tune has 19 TDs and just two interceptions over the last seven games. Led by junior quarterback Clayton Tune, the Houston offense has topped 40 points seven times this season. PICK: Under 46.5 points combined at FOX Bet
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I'd lean to the Baylor side - always give me the underdog in the rematch plus the off-the-rivalry win spot for the Cowboys - but the under is my best bet in this game. When you don't trust one QB situation, and on the other side, you have the up-and-down Spencer Sanders, the safe move is to play the under. So now your likely starter is freshman Blake Shapen? He was a more highly touted baseball recruit than football (he's playing both at Baylor). Dual-threat starter Gerry Bohanon is nursing a hamstring injury and hasn't played since leaving the win over Kansas State on Nov.
Still, it's tough to back Baylor here, given the uncertainty at quarterback. Toss in the fact that Oklahoma State was coming off a thrilling win over rival Oklahoma last week, and there's a letdown opportunity for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys. Two months later, and on a neutral field, Oklahoma State opened as a 6.5-point favorite? It seems a little high, which is why the number has come toward Baylor. In that game, Baylor was in a tough spot, coming off an emotional win over Iowa State - surviving on a failed 2-point conversion in the final minute - and started slowly before losing 24-14. In the earlier meeting, Oklahoma State was a 4-point favorite at home in early October. And the second thing that jumps out is the point spread. First, there's no Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game for the first time since 1988. When researching this game, two things stuck out to me.